Na pesquisa realizada pelo Instituto de Pesquisas Sociais, Políticas e Econômicas (Ipespe), divulgada em parceria com a Folha de Pernambuco, o ex-presidente Lula (PT) lidera, em Pernambuco, a disputa para a Presidência da República com 55% das menções. Na segunda colocação, Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) registra 13%, seguido por Marina Silva (Rede), 7%; Ciro Gomes (PDT), 4%; e Geraldo Alckmin(PSDB), 3%. O senador Alvaro Dias (Podemos) obteve 2% das intenções, e João Amoêdo (Novo) e Vera Lúcia (PSTU) registraram 1%, cada. O ex-ministro Henrique Meirelles (MDB), Cabo Daciolo (Patriota), Guilherme Boulos (PSOL), João Goulart Filho (PPL) e José Maria Eymael (PDC) não pontuaram na amostragem. Os brancos, nulos ou “nenhum” somam 10%, e os entrevistados que não sabem em quem vão votar ou não responderam são 4%.
O levantamento também questionou os eleitores sobre as intenções de votos em um cenário com o ex-ministro Fernando Haddad (PT) como candidato, sendo apoiado por Lula. Nesse panorama, o petista aparece na frente, com 27% das menções. Sem Lula, Marina Silvasobe para 15% das intenções de votos, em um empate técnico com Bolsonaro, 14%. Considerando a candidatura de Haddad, apesar de Marina ocupar o segundo lugar na pesquisa, quem herda mais votos do ex-presidente é Ciro Gomes, que sobe para 9%. Outro dado que chama atenção é o percentual de votos brancos e nulos, que aumenta significativamente para 20% sem candidatura de Lula.
A pesquisa foi realizada entre os dias 11 e 13 de agosto, por telefone, ouvindo 800 pessoas, definindo cotas de sexo, idade, localidade, instrução e renda. A margem de erro é de 3,5 pontos percentuais para mais ou para menos, com um intervalo de confiança de 95,45%. Como manda a lei, a pesquisa foi registrada no Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE) sob os números de protocolo BR-06973/2018 e PE-07336/2018.
Pesquisa Ipespe/Folha, em Pernambuco, para presidente da República – Arte/Folha de Pernambuco
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