Pesquisa Ipespe divulgada nesta quarta-feira (6) mostra o ex-presidente Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) com 44% das intenções de voto na corrida pelo Palácio do Planalto. O presidente Jair Bolsonaro (PL) tem 30%. As eleições estão marcadas para 2 de outubro.
Lula manteve a mesma intenção de votos da pesquisa anterior do Ipespe, divulgada em 25 de março. Já Bolsonaro subiu quatro pontos percentuais ― ele tinha 26% no último levantamento. A variação ficou acima da margem de erro, de 3,2 pontos percentuais.
A pesquisa divulgada nesta quarta foi a primeira do instituto após o ex-juiz Sergio Moro anunciar a desistência, neste momento, de sua pré-candidatura à Presidência. Ele deixou o Podemos e se filiou ao União Brasil, onde enfrenta resistências.
A seguir aparecem o ex-ministro Ciro Gomes (PDT), com 9%, e o ex-governador de São Paulo, João Doria (PSDB), com 3%. A senadora Simone Tebet (MDB) tem 2%.
O deputado federal André Janones (Avante) registrou 1%. Eymael (DC), Felipe d’Avila (Novo) e Vera Lúcia (PSTU) não pontuaram.
Brancos, nulos ou que não votariam em nenhum dos candidatos somam 9%. Indecisos representam 3% dos entrevistados.
Foram ouvidas 1.000 pessoas por telefone entre 2 e 5 de abril. A pesquisa, encomendada pela XP Investimentos, foi registrada na Justiça Eleitoral com o número BR-03874/2022. A margem de erro máximo estimada é de 3,2 pontos percentuais para mais ou para menos, com um intervalo de confiança de 95,5%. Os percentuais que não totalizam 100% são decorrentes de arredondamento ou de múltiplas alternativas de resposta.
Confira os números abaixo.
Primeiro turno
Intenção de voto estimulada para presidente:
- Lula – 44%
- Bolsonaro – 30%
- Ciro Gomes – 9%
- Doria – 3%
- Tebet – 2%
- Janones – 1%
- Eymael – 0%
- Felipe d’Avila – 0%
- Vera – 0%
- Branco/Nulo – 9%
- Indecisos – 3%
Segundo turno
Intenção de voto estimulada para presidente:
Cenário 1
- Lula – 53%
- Bolsonaro – 33%
- Branco/Nulo/Não votaria/Indecisos – 14%
Cenário 2
- Lula – 52%
- Ciro Gomes – 25%
- Branco/Nulo/Não votaria/Indecisos – 23%
Cenário 3
- Lula – 55%
- Doria – 20%
- Branco/Nulo/Não votaria/Indecisos – 25%
Cenário 4
- Ciro Gomes – 47%
- Bolsonaro – 37%
- Branco/Nulo/Não votaria/Indecisos – 17%
Cenário 5
- Bolsonaro – 39%
- Doria – 38%
- Branco/Nulo/Não votaria/Indecisos – 24%
Eleições 2022
A CNN realizará o primeiro debate presidencial de 2022. O confronto entre os candidatos será transmitido ao vivo em 6 de agosto, pela TV e por nossas plataformas digitais.
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